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This is a concept that came up in the "Do you fear death?" thread. Wingy and I expressed sadness that we'll never know the fate of the human race. What wonders will we miss in the future? What tragedies? What technology will evolve? Will the earth sustain the current population? If they last long enough, will humans evolve into a form quite different to how they are now? Will Mars be colonised? Will the rich be able to reverse the aging process and live forever?

Think of how much has occured in the last 2,000 years. Now imagine how much is going to occur in the next 20,000 years. I want to know everything about how the human race fares and then see how they meet their doom. How will that doom come about? A giant asteroid? Climate change? Or have humans reached a level where they can survive anything that the future holds right up until the death of the sun in 5 billion years?

I hope that after I die I am somehow able to look down from above and follow the rest of human history.

I don't know what's going to happen, but tangentially, Iavas, if you're interested in one author's view of how Mars will be colonised and the rich get a treatment to ensure virtual immortality, check out Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars / Green Mars / Blue Mars trilogy. The best SF I've read in years.

I'm looking forward to a collapse of capitalism still in my lifetime, and hopefully a rise of eco-socialism.

But for a worst case scenario, I stockpile scant black leather clothing, automatic weapons and motorcycles. Every other Sci-Fi shows there'll be a strong demand for that.

I live for the day when "Beam me up, Scotty" will be the way to travel.

No flights, no delays, no air-turbulance, no sitting-down-for-hour-after-endless-hour-of-doing-nothing-unable-to-sleep-and-harassed-by-the-two-year-old-kiddo-next-to-me.

And no airplane coffee!

You could find god, because at the end of the book apparently everybody gets to come back, takes sides in a big punch up, and God wins so thats nice.

But you will at least be able to see what has happened

Or maybe if belived in a rebirth religion, and you don't go for enlightenment, you may even be there when it happens.

Or just vote a Bush in again (I know GWB can't but there is that nice boy Jeb in Florida). I am sure the end of hummanity wuill come a lot sooner than you think .......

You should read the book The Fourth Turning

It shows how there are predictable cycles in human history, and where we are on those cycles and gives a vague idea of what's coming next.

Here's a bit of the official description of the book:

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William Strauss and Neil Howe base this vision on a provocative new theory of American history. With the same intellectual audacity that animated their previous best-sellers, Generations and 13th-GEN, the authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras--or "turnings"--that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis--the Fourth Turning--when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.

Strauss and Howe locate today's America as midway through an Unraveling, roughly a decade away from the next era of Crisis. In a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period, they show how generational dynamics are the key to understanding the cycles of American history. They draw vivid portraits of all the modern generations: the can-do G.I.s, the mediating Silent, the values-absorbed Boomers, the pragmatic 13ers, and the child Millennials. Placed in the context of history's long rhythms, the persona and role of each generation become clear--as does the inevitability of the coming Crisis.

By applying the lessons of history, The Fourth Turning makes some bold and hopeful predictions about America's next rendezvous with destiny. It also shows us how we can prepare for what's ahead, both individually and as a nation. As Future Shock did in the 1970s and Megatrends did in the 1980s, this groundbreaking book will have a profound effect on every reader's perception of where we've been and where we're going.

I think that's an old description, because we are at the end of an Unraveling period now, if not already in the Crisis phase. The book is very well researched, and the presentation of the ideas are quite convincing.

Personally, I find it quite comforting that humanity will settle down again in about 20 years and enjoy another long era of *niceness* and prosperity.... that is, IF we survive the next 20 years of Crisis.

Anyway, there it is: History really does keep repeating itself regularly, in essence, if not detail.

In terms of the human race itself and humans as a species, I think we will become more fragile as time goes on. Natural selection is not taking place since we effectively control our environment rather than the other way around, and medicines keep the weaker genes in the gene pool.

Also, as more and more hard labor becomes automated and done by machines and labor-saving devices abound, our metabolisms and hearts become weaker.

I'm not saying that's wrong, but as a species we will become ever more dependent on our inventions and any evolution that takes place may not necessarily be in the "right direction", whatever that means.

What a great idea for a thread!! I once had a book called "The History of the next millennium" (at least, I think that's what it was called) that speculated about the inventions and major events that might take place in the next 1000 years. It was pretty far fetched, though, and I'm not sure what they were basing their speculations on. I'll be interested in hearing what you all think is in store for us.

My biggest question is whether humans will ever transcend their self-destructive tendencies. Will we one day reach that elusive "peace", will we wipe ourselves out in a nuclear war, or will we just go on the way we have been until something in nature finally destroys us?

My second biggest question is: will we ever find out if we're alone in the Universe? But that might be a topic for another thread.

Two words:

Cat Food

(anyone else ever read Howard's book on cats? )

MY Plan.....I am going to throw my DNA into the volcano, and then when its time....MY DNA will crawl out of the ooze and I will rule the world.

Berhael wrote:

I don't know what's going to happen, but tangentially, Iavas, if you're interested in one author's view of how Mars will be colonised and the rich get a treatment to ensure virtual immortality, check out Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars / Green Mars / Blue Mars trilogy. The best SF I've read in years.

Thanks! Sounds interesting. I have also read a great sci-fi book about a colony on Mars called Solis.


Maria, thanks for the quote, that's interesting. Though slightly scary that a crisis period is coming up!

Lidless wrote:

In terms of the human race itself and humans as a species, I think we will become more fragile as time goes on. Natural selection is not taking place since we effectively control our environment rather than the other way around, and medicines keep the weaker genes in the gene pool.

Also, as more and more hard labor becomes automated and done by machines and labor-saving devices abound, our metabolisms and hearts become weaker.

I'm not saying that's wrong, but as a species we will become ever more dependent on our inventions and any evolution that takes place may not necessarily be in the "right direction", whatever that means.

You are probably right, although I would say there is still a general trend that those with better immune systems are more likely to reproduce. I remember reading that humans are evolving fairly fast in terms of height and body shape. Men are taller and women have different curves than 100 years ago, or something like that. So we might look significantly different in a million years time.

Wingy wrote:

I once had a book called "The History of the next millennium" (at least, I think that's what it was called) that speculated about the inventions and major events that might take place in the next 1000 years. It was pretty far fetched, though, and I'm not sure what they were basing their speculations on.

That's a book I would be very interested to read. Talking of books about the next 1000 years, did you ever get to read Attanasio's "Centuries"? I'm really missing my collection of Attanasio books which is back in the UK.

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My biggest question is whether humans will ever transcend their self-destructive tendencies. Will we one day reach that elusive "peace", will we wipe ourselves out in a nuclear war, or will we just go on the way we have been until something in nature finally destroys us?

My gut feeling is that there will always be trouble going on in some part of the world. I don't think "world peace" will ever be possible. The problem in the future will be that as technology improves, destructive technology will become easier to produce and more likely to fall into the wrong hands. We can see already the danger of unfriendly nations trying to develop nuclear weapons. Sadly, I think nuclear weapons will be used again at some point in the future, probably by a power-hungry dictator somewhere. The trouble is, nations will always have a desire to advance their power and influence in the world standings.

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My second biggest question is: will we ever find out if we're alone in the Universe

We're probably not alone, but it's unlikely we'll ever be able to make contact with an alien race. We might learn of their existence, but communication would be virtually impossible due to the distances involved.


I think what most blows my mind about the future is that this species that has come to completely dominate the planet can't go on forever. It's amazing to think that human intelligence, art, everything we've achieved, is ultimately doomed. In this era, it seems that humans are unstoppable - that they have the intelligence and technology to endure anything. But there will be an end - and I can't really fathom what it will be like for those that are there at the end.

Here's an interesting question. If you were offered the chance to live in the distant future (say 100,000 years from now), would you take it? Remembering that you could get there and find the planet totally ravaged. At the time we live now, atleast we are gauranteed to see the beauty of nature - in 100,000 years that might be gone.

I often ask myself, "Is this the period of history you would most like to live through?"

This is why I want to be frozen when I die...

However, I also think reincarnation, in various levels of consciousness, exists...we, as the people we are right now, won't exist...but our spirits will probably see the future.

I also think that the future of the human race isn't Really bad...I get the feeling, as long as space flight remains voluntary, Heinleins opinion that the race will improve, at least mentally, through migration, will be true. The smart people leave, and the people who don't look to the future stay on Earth.

Lidless, ever read Heinlein? He takes the view that genetic deficiencies should be, if not capitol crimes, sufficient for removing the ability to pass on those genetic deficiencies, in the name of future generations. That's actually an interesting discussion: does the right of the current few to have children outweigh the risk of countless future people suffering from genetic issues? Does the right for people to have children outweigh the wellbeing of the future? Does the right of possible children to have life outweight the right of many, many more other people to not suffer from their ancestors?

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Does the right of the current few to have children outweigh the risk of countless future people suffering from genetic issues? Does the right for people to have children outweigh the wellbeing of the future? Does the right of possible children to have life outweight the right of many, many more other people to not suffer from their ancestors?

Pro-life raised to an art form!

*~Pips~*

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I also think that the future of the human race isn't Really bad...I get the feeling, as long as space flight remains voluntary, Heinleins opinion that the race will improve, at least mentally, through migration, will be true. The smart people leave, and the people who don't look to the future stay on Earth.

The problem is, at some point humans will have to leave our solar system entirely if they want to continue to exist. When the sun becomes a red giant, the earth will be swallowed up and mars burned to a crisp. Perhaps one of the outer moons would then become habitable, but after a time the sun will blow off its outer layers. If that doesn't wipe out everything in its path, then the survivors would have to live off the heat of the white dwarf left behind - but the planets close enough for that to be possible would already have been wiped out. So, that means travelling to another star with a planet suitable for life. Unless humans can make spaceships capable of attaining atleast 10% of light-speed, the distances are just too great.

Of course, I doubt humans will be around long enough to face that particular crisis.. but if they are, I'd love to be around to see what they attempted.

Nah...I think drifter style travel may work. Yes, I know...I'm a naive fellow who doesn't know that much about physics, but I still strongly believe that we don't know even a tiny bit about reality...so I imagine, eventually, in the next ten billion years, we'll find a way off this rock.

Well, I'm not completely ruling it out. But given it would be physically impossible to travel anywhere near lightspeed (I've read that 0.1 is about the best that could be attained), that means a 40 year journey to even the nearest star. If it was a star with a suitable planetary system, it will be 100 years, probably significantly more. Humans will need significantly increased lifespans (very possible), the ability to freeze bodies and re-animate them (possible), but toughest of all, the resources to move the amount of material necessary to set up a new colony on the new planet. This may simply be beyond what technology can ever achieve. Humans will be very hard-pressed to conquere the vastness of space.

There will come a point where scientific advancement plateaus, where we've pretty much done everything we can.

Iavas wrote:

Maria, thanks for the quote, that's interesting. Though slightly scary that a crisis period is coming up!

You aren't kidding. The last Crisis era included both the Great Depression and World War II. The next one will seriously suck, which is why I put that "if we survive" qualifier on. If we make it through it the next Crisis cycle, when we get to the next "High", we will see society change to something new and interesting. It will be cool.

I just hope the societal change isn't something of a post Apocalyptic nature.

Iavas_Saar wrote:

There will come a point where scientific advancement plateaus, where we've pretty much done everything we can.

Many reputable scientists were sure we'd reached that point in 1890.

I think there will always be surprises. That 0.1c limit you mention, Iavas, is using technology we understand now. If a highly efficient, low-mass drive could be developed that would provide constant acceleration/deceleration (say with antimatter), much higher velocities would be possible, and the limit of travel would be related more to how much relativistic time dilatation people dared to undergo--you could travel many, many lightyears in your own lifetime at large fractions of c, but you would return to Earth hundreds or thousands of years after you left--not something most people would care to risk. Though it would give you a glimpse at the future!

I think it's a bit grandiose to imagine what we humans will be up to more than about 100,000 years out--given that our species apparently did not exist 200,000 years ago.

Another problem with long spans of time is that the odds of global catastrophe increase tremendously. A major asteroid impact could destroy all but bacterial life, raising the temperature of the atmosphere worldwide to thousands of degrees for days. A lesser impact could destroy most large animals, including us. An ice age could wipe out our civilization. A nearby supernova could fry at least one hemisphere with hard radiation. A major gamma ray burst somewhere in our galaxy could kill us all in our tracks at any moment (though I don't think we live in that kind of galaxy--Iavas knows, I'm sure).

My point is, over a long enough time span the chance of even a very unlikely event occurring becomes much greater. Statistics--it is actually more likely that a particular individual, say, you, will die in a major meteorite or comet impact than in a plane crash. This is because an impact like that is extremely unlikely but would kill hundreds of millions of people. A plane crash is far more likely but kills only a few hundred at most.

So--overall I'm glad that I can't plan on living through the next thousand centuries.

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Many reputable scientists were sure we'd reached that point in 1890.

I know that there's no end to science yet. But it has to slow down at some point - the earth has millions of years ahead of it.

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I think there will always be surprises. That 0.1c limit you mention, Iavas, is using technology we understand now. If a highly efficient, low-mass drive could be developed that would provide constant acceleration/deceleration (say with antimatter), much higher velocities would be possible, and the limit of travel would be related more to how much relativistic time dilatation people dared to undergo--you could travel many, many lightyears in your own lifetime at large fractions of c, but you would return to Earth hundreds or thousands of years after you left--not something most people would care to risk. Though it would give you a glimpse at the future!

I agree that there could be a technology we haven't explored yet that could pass 0.1c. The acceleration would need to be high though, otherwise the acceleration phase would significantly increase the journey time. As for time dilation, I don't think that would be a problem as I can't imagine the traveller returning from their mission.

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Another problem with long spans of time is that the odds of global catastrophe increase tremendously. A major asteroid impact could destroy all but bacterial life, raising the temperature of the atmosphere worldwide to thousands of degrees for days. A lesser impact could destroy most large animals, including us. An ice age could wipe out our civilization. A nearby supernova could fry at least one hemisphere with hard radiation. A major gamma ray burst somewhere in our galaxy could kill us all in our tracks at any moment (though I don't think we live in that kind of galaxy--Iavas knows, I'm sure).

I'm not so sure that humans won't be able to survive a lot of these things. By the time we are on a collision course with an asteroid, it should be possible to go and nudge it off course. I think we have the technology for pockets of the elite to seal themselves away and survive an ice age. There won't be any supernovas nearby for millions of years, I'd say we have time to figure that one out if it ever seems likely. Last I heard, gamma-ray bursts came from distant black-hole mergers and the like, I don't think our galaxy produces them.

I actually feel that atleast some humans will be able to survive any foreseeable cataclysm - even if it meant living underground for hundreds of years. I would say it's more likely that our own actions will lead to our destruction - either nuclear war or irreversable damage to the environment.

Even if humans are wiped out, it may be that life grows again and that the planet is still populated by something when the sun ends its life.

I have to agree with you Iavas that I think humans will have sufficient technology in the future to deal with asteroid impacts, ice ages and the like. My main fear is some kind of superbug, but some people may be able to escape even that by quarantining themselves deep underground for a few years.

I had a couple of questions about our chances of getting to another habitable planet. Do you think wormhole technology will ever be anything other than science fiction? And also, what do you think of the possibility of some kind of self-maintaining mobile space colony that could maintain a population for many generations while it traveled through space to a target star system? Photosynthetic bacteria could produce oxygen, but a major problem would obviously be a power source that could last that long.

I tend to agree that we'll probably never actually encounter alien life directly, but I think there's a solid chance of us being able to pick up some kind of signal from another planet. Honestly, I think the only reason we haven't thus far is because such signals haven't reached us yet. I heard a theory that only the latest generation of solar systems have planetary compositions capable of supporting life, so intelligent life, if it's out there, is probably a pretty new development on most other worlds. If we are destined to be around for a couple of hundred thousand more years, I think there's a solid chance that we'll detect some kind of alien signal at some point.