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Polar icecaps melting twice as fast as 5 years ago

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Pippin4242
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Posted: Tue 21 Feb , 2006 11:08 pm
Hasta la victoria, siempre
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If the sea levels rise by so much as an inch or two round here, it's bye-bye Somerset. Buying a house eight years ago my parents anticipated this, and made sure it was up a hill.

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oldtoby
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 12:21 am
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Well I dont have an elevation profile handy but I find it hard to believe, unless you live very near the shore, that such a small change would flood it out.

BTW, when you head out for your class trip? :)


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Pippin4242
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 2:14 am
Hasta la victoria, siempre
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July, but the training expedition to Dartmoor is this weekend![/panic]

Actually, the Somerset levels used to be a sea. An old system of drainage ditches along the sides of every field is all that's keeping large parts of Somerset from going back to being islands. As it is the seasonal flooding seems to get worse every year, and my friend Laura has taken up kayaking in her father's fields. Last winter the water froze over, and two enterprising teenage boys went skating on the fields, only to crash straight through the ice into one of the ditches. :help:

Seriously though, don't refute climate change people- it's happening, and within living memory.

BTW, t0by, if an ice cube is sticking out of the water, then when it melts any part that isn't already under the water becomes water itself. Therefore the level of the water must rise if nothing's sticking out any more.


...Sorry if that's wrong, I don't think it is... I've had four hours sleep in the last fifty or something... *facial spasms*

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oldtoby
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 3:16 am
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Quote:
BTW, t0by, if an ice cube is sticking out of the water, then when it melts any part that isn't already under the water becomes water itself. Therefore the level of the water must rise if nothing's sticking out any more.
Yes actually that is wrong, the ice cube sits in the water and displaces an amount equal to its total volume. when it melts that volume does not dissapear it runs off into the already present water, thus the water level stays the same.
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Seriously though, don't refute climate change people- it's happening, and within living memory.


Very few people are refuting climate change, the debate is whether human activities are causing a significant negative impact.

Oh and im sure your training thing this weekend will go swimmingly :D


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elfshadow
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 4:51 am
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Quote:
Yes actually that is wrong, the ice cube sits in the water and displaces an amount equal to its total volume. when it melts that volume does not dissapear it runs off into the already present water, thus the water level stays the same.
It's been awhile since I took physical science, but I'm pretty sure Pips is right...any ice that's sticking out of the water won't add to the volume of the water itself initially. So when the ice melts, if there was any sticking out, the water that it creates when it melts will add to the total volume of the water that was there initially. In other words, if the polar ice caps were to melt, any ice that was sticking out of the water would melt and add to the volume of the water that was already there. Which would mean an increase in the amount of water in the sea equal to the volume of the ice sticking out of the water after it had melted. :)


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oldtoby
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 5:00 am
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Quote:
any ice that's sticking out of the water won't add to the volume of the water itself initially.
Yes it will. Try this, fill a glass with water and put an ice cube in it. then mark where the water is at. then let the ice cube melt completely and check the water level again. It will not have changed.


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Onizuka Eikichi
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 5:18 am
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Ice is less dense than water. This is why it is able to float, regardless of the displacement volume (the bouyant force is equal the the weight of the displaced fluid).

When changed to water, it's density increases and it's volume decreases. The change in water level is hardly noticeable, if measurable at all. You'd need a lot of ice floating in very little water to make much a difference.

1g/mL - Water Density
.92g/mL - Ice Density

Volume increases by about 9% when water changes to ice. Likewise, Ice loses 9% of it's volume when it changes to water.

Since the densities are so close, most of the ice is submerged - very little is above the water not causing displacement. And when that little bit loses volume along with the submerged part when its melted...like I said there's hardly any difference if any at all.

Granted ice can have small variations in density, but usually nothing notable. Especially in naturally-occuring ice like we're talking about.

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oldtoby
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 2:45 pm
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Thanks Oni, I spent an hour last night trying to find a website with info like that with no success.


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ToshoftheWuffingas
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 2:54 pm
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That's all very well for sea ice but neglects land ice on both Antartcica and Greenland.
To use your ice cube analogy you are forgetting the ignorant barman who keeps ladling in more ice cubes.


ETA Just read toby's post (memo to self: read all of thread before posting) Without checking, I would be surprised if the Greenland ice was insignificant. It is very thick I believe - I must check.

ETA#2 Last Updated: Wednesday, 7 April, 2004, 17:00 GMT 18:00 UK




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Greenland's ice cap under threat

By Dr David Whitehouse
BBC News Online science editor



It could all go, say researchers
Greenland's ice sheet could disappear within the next 1,000 years if global warming continues at its present rate, a report in Nature magazine suggests.
Jonathan Gregory and colleagues from the University of Reading, UK, say their studies forecast an 8C increase in Greenland's temperature by 2350.

They believe that if the ice cap melts, global average sea level will rise by about 7m (23ft).

Even if global warming was halted the rise could be irreversible, they say.

Warming threshold

The researchers estimated that Greenland was likely to pass a threshold of warming beyond which the ice sheet - second in size to Antarctica - could not be sustained unless much greater reductions were made in emissions of greenhouse gases.

They found that over the next 350 years global warming was likely to pass the critical threshold in 34 out of 35 model calculations.

It's quite possible that Greenland is already making a slight contribution to global sea levels

Dr Jonathan Gregory, University of Reading
Greenland's average temperature only needs to increase by 3C to melt its ice sheet, but some of the modelling studies forecast a much higher rise by the year 2350.

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Dave_LF
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 4:37 pm
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The plants and animals (and people!) will definitely adapt to climate change. But Darwinian adaptation is a painful process that involves repeatedly culling the weak and unfit from the herd. You don't want to be around when there's a lot of that going on if you can help it.

There's also the issue of adapting our systems. How quickly and effectively could we shift agriculture north across political boundaries if the new climate demanded it? What will FEMA et al do if Katrina-like hurricanes become commonplace? What about the millions of people who live in regions that are likely to become deserts (of either the sandy or snowy variety)?


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Cenedril_Gildinaur
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 4:40 pm
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It's still not as warm as it was during the Medevial Warm Period, so I'm under the impression that this is simply a normal climatic variation.


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ToshoftheWuffingas
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 4:47 pm
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Are you saying that the ice caps melted at modern rates during the Middle Ages? I don't have that impression. Where is that recorded? There may have been certain areas that were warmer but we are talking about global temperatures not local ones.

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Cenedril_Gildinaur
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 4:51 pm
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We don't have a recording of polar ice cap melting during the Medevial Warm Period, but we do have a data on the temperatures. It was during the MWP that wine grapes grown in southern France today were grown as far north as England. It was when the MWP ended with the mini-Ice Age that farms in Greenland were abandoned to the encroaching ice.

I just have to assume that there is a correlation between rising temperatures and ice melting.


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oldtoby
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Posted: Wed 22 Feb , 2006 8:29 pm
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interesting fact i just found:

http://edmall.gsfc.nasa.gov/99invest.Si ... d-ice.html
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Although the current rate of sea level rise is as much as 2mm/yr, it is not known whether the present ice sheets are shrinking or growing. Each year, about 8 mm of water from the entire surface of the Earth’s oceans accumulates as snow on Greenland and Antarctica. The average ice accumulation on Greenland is about 26cm/yr and Antarctica about 16cm/yr (please note accumulation is in water amounts, or about 5 times greater in snowfall). We do not know, however, whether the amount of water returned to the oceans in icebergs and melt water runoff balances the snow accumulation to within + 25%. This large uncertainty exists because there is little direct information on ice sheet volume change.


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