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The United States is Broke

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Dave_LF
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Posted: Sat 01 Mar , 2008 1:12 am
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My interest is not purely academic. I'm in the process of buying my first house, and have been trying to figure out whether it's better or worse for me if my lender goes under. ;)


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Meril36
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Posted: Sat 01 Mar , 2008 3:27 am
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You too, Dave? So are we. :)

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Dave_LF
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Posted: Tue 04 Mar , 2008 3:31 pm
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How do you know when a bank is in trouble? How about when:
Sameer Al Ansari, Chief Executive of Dubai International Capital told delegates at a private equity conference that it will take more than the combined efforts of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Kuwait Investment Authority and Saudi investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal to save [CitiBank].


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Ara-anna
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Posted: Tue 04 Mar , 2008 5:35 pm
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Citibank did it to themselves. Sorry I have no compassion for Citibank.

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Dave_LF
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Posted: Thu 06 Mar , 2008 1:15 pm
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Meril36 wrote:
You too, Dave? So are we. :)
Yes; my logic is that if things manage to hold together, it's the right time to be buying for the normal reasons. If they don't; well, it's harder to throw someone out of a house than out of an apartment, and I'd rather have my money in something that has value in and of itself as opposed to depreciating dollars under the control of a bank that's at risk of going under.


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Meril36
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Posted: Thu 06 Mar , 2008 9:35 pm
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Well, Dave, I once asked my Dad a similar question, and he told me that when things are unstable you still don't generally have to worry about being evicted because during such times it's uncertain exactly who owns what. Just always set aside your monthly mortgage payment so that when it does become clear who has taken over your debt you can pay for the months when you had no one to send the check to.

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With all the anger in the land, how long before the judgement day? Before we cut the fat ones down to size? Before the barricades arise?

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Meril36
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Posted: Thu 06 Mar , 2008 9:40 pm
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Plus, if you have a house you'll have a plot of land, whether large or small, and you can save some money by growing your own vegetables. That's what we plan to do. We just put in a bid on a short sale that has a huge back yard, being at the end of a cul-de-sac. And there are other things you can do in economic hard times as well. In fact, here's a link to an essay CG found recently:

How to Survive the Collapse

Last edited by Meril36 on Fri 14 May , 2010 9:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Trying for profundity only limits depth.

With all the anger in the land, how long before the judgement day? Before we cut the fat ones down to size? Before the barricades arise?

Visit my art gallery at deviantART.


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Dave_LF
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Posted: Fri 07 Mar , 2008 12:30 am
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Good essay, CG. I am doing, plan to do, or would like to do most of those things. We'll definitely have a garden, and I'm planning to put in a couple apple trees since we're living in the middle of apple and grape country here. I'd like to have some chickens too, but that might not go over well with the neighborhood for the moment. A woodstove is hopefully in the cards before next winter too.

Of course, it's also important to know when to call it quits:
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Dave_LF
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Posted: Mon 10 Mar , 2008 4:56 pm
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This is swaying from the topic a bit, but just to drive home the point that the subprime mess, peak oil, etc. are symptoms of the problem rather than the problem itself:
Could we really run out of food?

The problem is a general one of demand/population growing faster than supply in a global system so tighly integrated and operating so close to the line that failure anywhere translates into failure everywhere.
Quote:
Most unusual about this phenomenon, according to BMO Financial Group strategist Don Coxe, is that until now, food crises in world history were regional concerns that arose from crop failures, war or pests. Once global trade of grains got going in the 19th century in a major way, food shortages in one country were ameliorated by imports, he said. What's happening now is a lack of supply everywhere at once.
...
Joseph R. Dancy, who teaches law at Southern Methodist University and runs a small hedge fund, lays the immediacy of the crisis directly on ethanol-production mandates in an energy bill recently passed by Congress. The bill, intended to boost America's energy independence, is expected to push as much as 31% of the U.S. corn crop into biofuels production, up from 24% last year. In other words, at the exact moment we most need corn on our plates, it is being funneled into cars. A full tank of gas requires the equivalent of a quarter of a ton of raw foodstuffs, enough to feed one person bread for a year.


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Ara-anna
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Posted: Mon 10 Mar , 2008 5:18 pm
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Buy seeds.

I have for some time wondered if ethanol is the great wonder it has been claimed to be. I am not sure that the US would feel the impact, or if the US would simply stop shipping food stuffs out of the country. I just don't think ethanol is the answer to peak oil problems. I think we need to rethink. I honestly think that between gas for cars and food for table, food for table will win.

My other question is why isn't the fuel cell hydrogen car being pushed to the fast track of development?

I also think we have reached peak oil, perhaps even a few years back, and we are going down hill at this point. I honestly think we as both the US and the world are way behind the curve.

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Dave_LF
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Posted: Mon 10 Mar , 2008 5:49 pm
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Ara-anna wrote:
I honestly think that between gas for cars and food for table, food for table will win.
To a large extent, the two are one and the same. "Modern agriculture is the process of converting petroleum into food". There's also the problem that rich(er) people will choose gas for their cars above food for poor(er) ones' tables.
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My other question is why isn't the fuel cell hydrogen car being pushed to the fast track of development?
Because "hydrogen fuel" really means "electricity". So the question really is, why isn't electric production being ramped up? The answer is because most electricity is produced either by fossil fuels or nuclear. Using fossil fuels to create electricity to split water to create fuel cells is less efficient than just burning the fossil fuel in the car. Nuclear is controversial and has issues of its own. Hydro is already being done pretty much everywhere it can be. Wind/solar are still toys for the most part and are mired in politics where they're not. If there is an answer, it's going to involve finding ways to get by with less rather than finding ways to keep getting more.

(Edit: Those comments aren't directed at you personally, Ara)


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Castanea_d.
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Posted: Tue 18 Mar , 2008 1:07 pm
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A bit more evidence in today's news for the article that Dave posted a few days ago about the growing shortage of food:

Bread shortage in Egypt
Quote:
Egypt's president has ordered the army to increase the production and distribution of bread, in an attempt to cope with serious shortages. Rising prices and alleged corruption have sparked recent clashes at bakeries in poorer neighbourhoods, leading to several deaths. . . .

The price of wheat has more than tripled on international markets since last summer. Mr Mubarak has ordered the government to use some foreign reserves to buy additional wheat from the international market, the spokesman said.

Many of Egypt's 70m population, about half of whom live below the poverty line, survive on subsidised bread.
I fear that we will be seeing more and more of this sort of thing.

The agribusiness-style farmers here in Iowa are quite pleased with the current demand and prices for their corn crop; over a third of it goes toward ethanol these days. Meanwhile, poor people? “Let them eat cake.”


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Dave_LF
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Posted: Wed 19 Mar , 2008 4:21 pm
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You've gotta love spin:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/10/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes

The tagline says that gas will probably hit close to $4 in the next few weeks, but not to worry because prices will probably decline after that. But why do they think they'll they decline? If you dig into the article, it's because they expect the high prices to hurt the economy so much that demand will be destroyed. Big relief, huh? They drop the spin at the end:
Quote:
By July 4, when many Americans pack up the sedan and head for the mountains or beach, prices could be back around $3. If anyone can still afford a vacation.


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MariaHobbit
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Posted: Wed 19 Mar , 2008 7:20 pm
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Ouch! I'm beginning to think our 40 mile round trip commute isn't such a good thing. :(
Dave wrote:
I'd like to have some chickens too, but that might not go over well with the neighborhood for the moment.
A friend of ours has some bantam chickens in town. He gets several eggs a day from them, and his neighbors don't complain. Some towns have ordinances against chickens but most such are against roosters. You can easily have a few hens without a rooster and they don't make much noise.

It's the cock crowing at all hours of the day and night that most neighbors find intolerable.

There's no way a backyard vegetable garden is going to feed a family all year. It takes a significant chunk of land to grow enough to feed several people for a year. One year we put in about an acre of sweet corn and got a good harvest, but it was only enough to feed us for a year. And some of it we ruined, because we were processing it outside, while burning citronella candles to keep the mosquitos away- and the whole batch that day tasted like citronella. :sick: It's technically edible, but there's still some of that sitting in the freezer two years later. Yuck.

You'd be lucky to get a 1/4 acre garden out of a standard suburban yard. That's enough to get something tasty all summer long, but not enough to put much away for later.

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Meril36
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Posted: Wed 19 Mar , 2008 7:59 pm
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Good thing the yard in the house we've bid on is larger than standard -- even for a house at the end of a Cul-de-sac. We still probably won't be able to grow enough to feed us all year, of course, but we can at least supplement our diet and save some money that way. Especially if we plant several fruit trees, the products of which I can turn into jams and such.

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With all the anger in the land, how long before the judgement day? Before we cut the fat ones down to size? Before the barricades arise?

Visit my art gallery at deviantART.


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MariaHobbit
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Posted: Wed 19 Mar , 2008 8:49 pm
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Berries have a faster return than fruit trees. We planted fruit trees about 10 years ago, and have yet to see any fruit. I'm hoping, this year, but you never know. The nut trees we've planted will take even longer.

I used to get a bumper crop of strawberries each year, but after the plants of my main bed died after a massive hail storm, I haven't had any luck getting a new one established. I'm going to try again this year-- maybe with my st00pfid chickens incarcerated I can get that going again. Life just isn't complete without fresh strawberries in the spring. :)

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Meril36
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Posted: Wed 19 Mar , 2008 9:59 pm
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Huh. My parents planted a peach and it only took a couple of years for it to bear fruit. Maybe it depends on the tree. We plan to have raspberry vines and I want a couple of strawberry pots. I also want some honeyberry shrubs.

_________________

Trying for profundity only limits depth.

With all the anger in the land, how long before the judgement day? Before we cut the fat ones down to size? Before the barricades arise?

Visit my art gallery at deviantART.


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Dave_LF
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Posted: Wed 19 Mar , 2008 10:32 pm
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I am planning to plant some blueberry bushes and either cherry or pear trees in addition to the vegetable garden. Anyone have any advice on those? (I live in USDA zone 6, if that means anything to you).

I don't have any illusions about being able to live off my garden--in fact I deliberately chose a smaller lot in town over a bigger one in the country because I concluded the certainty of being able to walk everywhere I need to go is more valuable than a pipe dream of living off the land with no experience. But every bit counts, and I figure if things actually get to the point where it's grow all your own food or starve, I probably don't stand a chance anyway.

I'll consider a couple of chickens too. I could keep them in the extra space I'll have in the garage after it becomes pointless to own a car. :D


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Meril36
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Posted: Wed 19 Mar , 2008 11:43 pm
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We might also have a cherry tree -- one thing about them, though, is that unless you're extremely conscientious about picking the cherries as they become ripe, the tree will make a mess of your yard by dropping fruit all over the place. You must also beware of birds; they'll partially eat the fruit, (whether it's ripe or not) with much the same result to your yard. You might try throwing some netting over the tree so that the birds can't get to it so easily -- my parents did that with their peach tree.

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Trying for profundity only limits depth.

With all the anger in the land, how long before the judgement day? Before we cut the fat ones down to size? Before the barricades arise?

Visit my art gallery at deviantART.


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MariaHobbit
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Posted: Thu 20 Mar , 2008 9:45 pm
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I've tried 3 times to get blueberries started on our place, without success. :( I've come to the following conclusions:

1. Don't ignore the instructions to acidify the soil first, that dooms the plant.

2. Don't allow the chickens to scratch around the plants, this kills the plants.

3. If you put a bit of chicken wire around the next year's plants, to keep the chickens away, but then fail to take down the wire and weed occasionally- the plants die. :roll:

Everything's going to be much *better* without the chickens free ranging. Except maybe the eggs.... :(

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