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The problem of food shortages

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Castanea_d.
Post subject: The problem of food shortages
Posted: Fri 11 Apr , 2008 2:35 pm
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In another thread, The United States is Broke,, there was some discussion last month of rising food prices, and the prospect of food shortages. As noted over there, this is a part of the larger collection of inter-related issues that seem to be all coming to a head at once: peak oil, overpopulation, water shortages, growing consumer demand in places like China and India, etc.

The food issue is worth spinning off into its own thread. I will start with two quotes from Dave_LF:
Quote:
The problem is a general one of demand/population growing faster than supply in a global system so tightly integrated and operating so close to the line that failure anywhere translates into failure everywhere.

"Modern agriculture is the process of converting petroleum into food". There's also the problem that rich(er) people will choose gas for their cars above food for poor(er) ones' tables. (both quotes are from posts on March 10)
I cited a news story about bread riots in Egypt, where a large part of the population survives on subsidized bread. A few days ago, there was a similar story from Haiti:
Food riots in Haiti (April 9 article)
Quote:
The Haitian capital remains largely paralyzed amid continuing protests and rioting over soaring food prices. . . . There were widespread demonstrations in Port-au-Prince on Monday. Then on Tuesday, protesters tried to break through the gates of the presidential palace before being chased away by United Nations peacekeepers firing tear gas and rubber bullets.

Gunfire is also reported throughout Petionville, the upscale community in the mountains above the capital where many diplomats and foreigners live. . . .
Five people have also been killed in food riots in the southern city of Les Cayes, where protesters tried to burn down the U.N. compound last week. . . .

Food prices, which have risen 40 per cent on average globally since mid-2007, are causing unrest around the world. But they pose a particular threat to democracy in Haiti, where most people live on less than $2 a day.
And today, this:

Rice prices 'to keep on rising'
Quote:
Rice prices are set to keep rising as demand for the staple is outstripping production, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) has said. . . . The price of rice has risen by as much as 70% during the past year, with increases accelerating in recent weeks. . . .

"Longer term demand-supply imbalance is clearly indicated by depletion of stock that has been going on for several years," said Sushil Pandey, agricultural economist at the IRRI. . . .

Rice is the staple food for about three billion people worldwide.
The IRRI spokesman calls for “more research” into ways of increasing yields. I am not optimistic that this will solve the problem. Nor do I think that it is primarily a distribution problem. Rather, we may be approaching limits that have been pushed back repeatedly by “green revolutions” and dependence on fossil fuels, but which may nonetheless remain as genuine limits to the carrying capacity of the planet in terms of feeding people.

Of particular interest is the work of some of the “neo-Malthusian” scholars, linking overpopulation to political violence and revolutions: for example, Ted Robert Gurr's work on political violence in the Palestinian territories and the Congo/Rwanda. [EDIT to add: I do not know Gurr's work directly, but only by references to it in secondary sources; I claim no expertise in these matters.]

In short, when there are a lot of hungry people, things get ugly.


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vison
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Posted: Fri 11 Apr , 2008 5:18 pm
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Darfur is what happens when there is not enough land and not enough food. It is the Land of the Future.

I am old enough to remember when the various theories about how sooner, probably sooner than later, the human population would reach a point at which food shortages were inevitable, were scoffed at and loudly debunked. Because of the "green revolution" and a few other things, that day was postponed. I think that day is here.

The green revolution depended on oil. Fertilizer is made from oil. The kind of farming required by the "green revolution" crops required modern farm machinery, all oil-fueled.

Nearly all the arable land on Earth is under cultivation - and a horrible percentage of that land is being and has been destroyed by "salination". Land is being cropped that is ill-suited to intensive agriculture. Monocultures have reduced genetic diversity of food crops. Newly wealthy people in India and China are eating more meat - and meat is mostly corn and corn takes more oil to grow than any other crop does. And NOW, folly of folly, corn is being grown to make fuel - and it sometimes takes more oil to grow the corn than you are going to get back in biofuel.

Agri-tyrants like Monsanto and Cargill control, actually control many seedstocks and means of production. Since Monsanto and other corporations were allowed patents on seed, the farmers of the world are increasingly in their power. (A very interesting article on Monsanto in the latest Vanity Fair.)

To be honest, I think we are in for some awful times. Luckily for me, I live in a rich, rich, rich country and not only that, a country with plenty of oil and other resources. I am further fortunate that I can grow a substantial portion of my own food.

No matter how often it is denied, the Earth is a finite area with finite resources and we cannot go on forever expanding.

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Dave_LF
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Posted: Fri 11 Apr , 2008 6:16 pm
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While I was still an unhappy grad student who didn't know what to do his his life, I often joked about running away to Svalbard (I'm one of those weird people who likes wild, desolate places and the cold, you see). Recently, Norway has started putting together a "doomsday seed vault" on the island. Maybe I was on to something...


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Castanea_d.
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Posted: Tue 15 Apr , 2008 6:25 pm
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a report on global agriculture

(from a BBC news item):
Quote:
A United Nations-sponsored report has warned that modern farming practices and rules must change in response to rising food prices. "Business as usual is no longer an option", says the report, as extra food costs threaten to plunge millions more people into poverty.

The study, published by UNESCO in Paris, calls for more emphasis on protecting natural resources. More natural and ecological farming techniques should be used, it says. These should include reducing the distance between production and the consumer.

The report is the result of three years of work involving scientists and other experts, as well as governments of developed and developing countries. The authors conclude that progress in agriculture has reaped very unequal benefits - and that it has come at a high social and environmental cost.

UNESCO notes the ''considerable influence'' of big transnational corporations in North America and Europe. . . .
I like this last bit of understatement about the “considerable influence,” as vison observed the other day about Monsanto, Cargill, Con-Agra, et.al.

EDIT to add another article in today's news, this time based on a World Bank study:
link
Quote:
the study identified other consequences: "We have lost some of our environmental sustainability.

"There have been adverse effects in some parts of the world on soils, water, biodiversity; our agricultural systems have contributed to human-induced climate change and, in turn, human-induced climate change threatens agricultural productivity." . . . The authors projected that the global demand for food was set to double in the next 25-50 years, primarily in developing nations.


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Cenedril_Gildinaur
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Posted: Wed 16 Apr , 2008 6:03 pm
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I've never agreed with Ehrlich and his dud of a population bomb, but there is going to be, as fallout of the global currency crisis, a food crisis.

Another factor is that ethanol is taking a large part of hour corn harvest and turning it into fuel. the 23 kg of corn that fills a 50 litre tank can feed a poor person for a year. source

Just the thing we need in times of crisis, to throw away food. Reminiscent of the worst US president of the 20th century dumping milk in the rivers and causing mules to plow crops under.

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Last edited by Cenedril_Gildinaur on Tue Feb 30, 2026 13:61 am; edited 426 times in total


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Holbytla
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Posted: Wed 16 Apr , 2008 6:56 pm
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Quote:
No matter how often it is denied, the Earth is a finite area with finite resources and we cannot go on forever expanding.
And we won't. People will eventually starve to death and the population will decrease.


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Cenedril_Gildinaur
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Posted: Wed 16 Apr , 2008 9:33 pm
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vison wrote:
No matter how often it is denied, the Earth is a finite area with finite resources and we cannot go on forever expanding.
Straw man much?

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It is a myth that coercion is necessary in order to force people to get along together, but it is a persistent myth because it feeds a desire many people have. That desire is to be able to justify hurting people who have done nothing other than offend them in some way.

Last edited by Cenedril_Gildinaur on Tue Feb 30, 2026 13:61 am; edited 426 times in total


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Cenedril_Gildinaur
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Posted: Wed 23 Apr , 2008 8:28 pm
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Ethanol subsidies starve poor kids

A much more rational view than "we're going to eat up all the land and then starve."
Quote:
The High Cost of Food

Land for growing food has always competed with land used to grow plants with other uses. Farmers who grow cotton could instead grow grains or fruits. Also, forest land has the alternative use as food crop land. These trade-offs are called opportunity costs. The economic cost of farmland is the value of the forests and wild grasslands that would otherwise be there. Likewise, the opportunity cost of a forest is the value of the land if used for housing, crops, and grazing.

Recently a new opportunity cost has arisen, as crops such as corn and sugar can be grown for fuel rather than for food. This would not be harmful if not for government subsides for ethanol made of corn. The U.S. federal government subsidizes ethanol production at 51 cents per gallon. Farmers who used to grow corn for animal feed or human consumption now sell crops to biofuel distilleries. One-fifth of American grain is used for ethanol. Food prices almost doubled from 2005 to 2008, while the price of corn has tripled from $2 to over $6 per bushel.

The increasing global demand for meat, eggs, and grains, has contributed to the price increase, as the Asian and Eastern European economies become wealthier. Foreign demand has greatly increased U.S. exports of grain, and even more so with the lower exchange value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. goods cheaper for Europeans. The rising price of oil also contributes to higher food prices. Still, it has been estimated that using corn for fuel rather than food contributes a third of the rise in prices worldwide, and about half of the increase in demand has been the use of grains for fuel.

If there is a greater market demand for food, the market response is an increase in supply. But when there is a subsidy, then the increase in demand is artificial, and this shifts production from one use to another. That shift distorts prices, profits, and quantities. Subsidies are just as damaging to an economy as taxes. And there have been subsidies and restrictions for food crops as well as fuel crops, creating a colossal global distortion in food prices. Some countries are now even banning the exports of foods to prevent hunger.

Taxes on goods, labor, and business profits create an excess burden, a misallocation and waste of resources, also called a “deadweight loss.” The annual loss has been estimated at around $1.5 trillion, over ten percent of GDP. That means we would be over ten percent richer if not for the waste caused by taxes. This is not a necessary waste, since we could tax land value with no deadweight loss, as land does not hide, shrink, or flee when taxed.

A subsidy too creates a deadweight loss because the economic cost of the tax revenue used for the subsidy is greater than the increase in benefits to the consumers of those goods. If a subsidy is not in cash but in protection from competition, the deadweight loss comes from the higher prices paid by consumers, which in effect is a tax on their consumption.

Ethanol made from sugar is cheaper than ethanol made from corn, so to protect corn farmers from foreign competition, the U.S. government has quotas on sugar imports. That also raises the price of sugar, driving candy makers out of the country. For example, Lifesavers candy moved its factory to Canada, where it could buy sugar at the lower world market price. Americans are not allowed to import Cuban sugar, but Canada imports sugar from Cuba and turns it into candy, and then exports the candy to the U.S. So Americans end up eating Cuban sugar anyway, except that Canadians have the candy-making jobs instead of Americans.

Some farmers in the less developed countries have benefitted from the higher prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice, but the urban poor have been hurt badly. U.S. subsidies for ethanol creates hunger in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Children are especially harmed from inadequate nutrition.

Corn subsidies make for good politics and terrible policy. Politicians need the campaign funds provided by farm interests, and they cater to the corn vote, while most folks are too busy to notice. But now, indulging in corn subsidies is killing impoverished children. Rising food prices affect most people, so we should tell the politicians and state officials that we oppose subsidizing crops for fuel. The fuelish subsidy should be stopped right now.

This article first appeared in the Progress Report, www.progress.org. Reprinted with permission.

Dr. Fred Foldvary teaches economics at Santa Clara University and is the author of several books: The Soul of Liberty, Public Goods and Private Communities, and the Dictionary of Free-Market Economics.

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It is a myth that coercion is necessary in order to force people to get along together, but it is a persistent myth because it feeds a desire many people have. That desire is to be able to justify hurting people who have done nothing other than offend them in some way.

Last edited by Cenedril_Gildinaur on Tue Feb 30, 2026 13:61 am; edited 426 times in total


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Dave_LF
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Posted: Wed 23 Apr , 2008 9:25 pm
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The Wall Street Journal says, "maybe it's time for Americans to start stockpiling food. No, this is not a drill."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120881517227532621.html

For my part, I don't think it's time to panic just yet. The global economy still has the ability to ramp up food production quite a bit, and it presumably will after the signals it's getting right now have time to sink in. But it's certainly possible that things could get weird in the meantime, and it's always good to be prepared.


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Cenedril_Gildinaur
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Posted: Wed 23 Apr , 2008 9:55 pm
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Production can be ramped up immediately if corn is diverted to use as a food source.

But that's politically incorrect. Logically correct, but politically incorrect.

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It is a myth that coercion is necessary in order to force people to get along together, but it is a persistent myth because it feeds a desire many people have. That desire is to be able to justify hurting people who have done nothing other than offend them in some way.

Last edited by Cenedril_Gildinaur on Tue Feb 30, 2026 13:61 am; edited 426 times in total


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MariaHobbit
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Posted: Thu 24 Apr , 2008 2:19 pm
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that last article wrote:
You can't easily stock up on perishables like eggs or milk. But other products will keep. Among them: Dried pasta, rice, cereals, and cans of everything from tuna fish to fruit and vegetables. The kicker: You should also save money by buying them in bulk.
The problem with stocking up on grain products is that they have to be sealed to where bugs can't get into them. I've had too many bags of flour, noodles, rice, beans, crackers and the like go bad just because bugs chewed holes in the plastic bag or found a pinhole and got in and infested the lot and ruined it. Now when I buy that sort of thing ahead of time, I store it in the freezer, but my freezer space is limited.

And cans of things do go bad after a while. I recently had to throw out lots of evaporated milk and some jelly and some ketchup because they just got too old and discolored. Buying in bulk isn't a good plan if you don't have a reasonable rotation plan in place.

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Ara-anna
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Posted: Thu 24 Apr , 2008 8:36 pm
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:scratch: Maria,

I believe that once you freeze the flour ect, it kills the bugs or bug eggs, so they can be moved from the freezer. At least that is what I have been told and have done for ages, I haven't had bugs in a long time. But I do live in a much drier climate.

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Castanea_d.
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Posted: Sat 26 Apr , 2008 7:27 pm
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MariaHobbit is right about the storage of grains, pastas, etc., and rotating canned goods. I had to learn that lesson by experience some years ago. Ara-Anna, I haven't tried what you suggest: I will.

We are vegetarians, and base our diet on soy and pinto beans, peanuts, sunflower seeds, corn meal, oats, wheat, rice, and millet. We buy in moderately large quantities (ten pounds or so at a time). What has worked well for us is to use plastic gallon-sized ice cream buckets. They seal tightly and are durable. There is a thrift store here that sells them for ten cents a piece.

The article that DaveLF quoted makes a good point. I do not think that there is need yet to store a lot of food at home, but it might be a good idea to keep enough nonperishables for a fortnight or two, in case there are temporary “supply disruptions” of one sort or another. Things being as they are in the U.S., I could imagine these happening for any number of reasons, and being made worse by people overreacting in panic.

I am afraid that some people will begin hoarding, not know enough to store the food wisely, and the only ones to benefit will be the insects (and perhaps rats, mice, et. al.) Many Americans are entirely innocent of the old-time arts of home economics.

Food Rationing confronts the “breadbasket of the world”
Quote:
Major retailers in New York, in areas of New England, and on the West Coast are limiting purchases of flour, rice, and cooking oil as demand outstrips supply. There are also anecdotal reports that some consumers are hoarding grain stocks. . . .

[the reporter visits a California Costco outlet and reports that] most Costco members were being allowed to buy only one bag [of rice]. Moments earlier, a clerk dropped two sacks back on the stack after taking them from another customer who tried to exceed the one-bag cap.

“Due to the limited availability of rice, we are limiting rice purchases based on your prior purchasing history,” a sign above the dwindling supply said. . . .

An employee at the Costco store in Queens said there were no restrictions on rice buying, but limits were being imposed on purchases of oil and flour. Internet postings attributed some of the shortage at the retail level to bakery owners who flocked to warehouse stores when the price of flour from commercial suppliers doubled.

The curbs and shortages are being tracked with concern by survivalists who view the phenomenon as a harbinger of more serious trouble to come.

“It’s sporadic. It’s not every store, but it’s becoming more commonplace,” the editor of SurvivalBlog.com, James Rawles, said. “The number of reports I’ve been getting from readers who have seen signs posted with limits has increased almost exponentially, I’d say in the last three to five weeks.” . . .

Mr. Rawles said it is hard to know how much of the shortages are due to lagging supply and how much is caused by consumers hedging against future price hikes or a total lack of product.

“There have been so many stories about worldwide shortages that it encourages people to stock up. What most people don’t realize is that supply chains have changed, so inventories are very short,” Mr. Rawles, a former Army intelligence officer, said. “Even if people increased their purchasing by 20%, all the store shelves would be wiped out.” . . .

An anonymous high-tech professional writing on an investment Web site, Seeking Alpha, said he recently bought 10 50-pound bags of rice at Costco. “I am concerned that when the news of rice shortage spreads, there will be panic buying and the shelves will be empty in no time. I do not intend to cause a panic, and I am not speculating on rice to make profit. I am just hoarding some for my own consumption,” he wrote.
Five hundred pounds is a lot of rice. One ounce of rice will make about a half-cup of cooked rice, considered a standard serving. People who base their diet on rice eat much more than this as a "serving," but let's say 3 ounces per serving, making one and a half cups. That makes five and a third servings per pound, so the “high tech professional” has over 2600 large servings on hand. I hope he stores it carefully.

Here in Iowa, the natural foods store where we buy such things has not limited buying, but the prices have increased significantly. I talked with the bulk food lady at the store (whom I know well); she said that a 50-pound bag of brown rice cost the store about $15 a year ago; now it is $45, and not always available.

We are apartment dwellers, and completely dependent on the food supply chain – as are most Americans. At least we have long experience with eating cheaply, or in ways that have been cheap heretofore. We will be ahead of most people if things get tight.

I am surprised: I expected to see fuel rationing before food rationing in the U.S. I expect to see both, before long.

Things will be much, much worse in many other parts of the world.
Wikipedia article on the “2007-2008 world food price crisis”

The above is a good summary of what has been going on, and the contributing factors. It lists eleven countries where there have been recent food riots, plus places such as Pakistan and Indonesia where there have not yet been riots, but the army is deployed to prevent the stealing of food from farm fields and warehouses.

Then there is the Philippines, “the world's largest rice importer,” where the government is saying “We don't have a food shortage,” and it sounds like some serious denial is going on, especially since many of the sources for their imported rice have applied export bans.


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