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Future of Republicanism

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TheEllipticalDisillusion
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Fri 08 May , 2009 1:35 pm
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The Republicans will branch off into the Wal-Mart wing and the Moderate wing before the Republican party will go away completely. I can see the moderates forming their own party with values closer to that of conservatism, while what's left of the Republicans will try to excite their base with Sarah Palin, Rush, Joe the Plumber. They stand for "conservatism" only in name.

I think it is interesting that gay marriage (garriage) can become a divisive issue in the future. By all accounts of states rights, certain states have exercised their right to decide on the garriage issue either banning or allowing. I read a terrible interview with Joe the Plumber on CNN.com. He said that he believes garriage should be decided by states, but thinks it shouldn't be allowed because of god something... I believe he said that all societies of all times held marriage as sacred between a man and a woman (guess he doesn't read history). The interesting part is that he makes a claim of states rights, but his own wing of the Republicans supported Georgie's constitutional amendment to make marriage a man/woman only thing. Lastly, Joe the Plumber.... your fifteen minutes are up. You are not a plumber, you are a liar, go away.

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tinwe
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Fri 08 May , 2009 3:35 pm
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I would think the biggest thing keeping the Republican party from breaking up is the fact that by themselves neither faction, social or fiscal conservatives, has any hope of winning any elections. It has been that way for quite some time now, this unholy alliance that has existed between the two groups has only made sense in terms of their mutual need for each other. However, given the fact that the party as it is today stands little chance of winning back any power at the national level anyway, it may be time the two groups start going their separate ways after all. What do they have to loose when they don’t have any hope of winning anyway?

If the Republican party did in fact split into two or more parties (unlikely as it may be), then the possibility would exist for the Democrats to split up too. After all, if the marriage of fiscal and social conservatives was an unholy alliance, that of labor unions and, for instance, environmentalists is just as unlikely. The only logic I ever saw for having a Democratic party made up of, essentially, a bunch of little minor parties, was to overcome the potent force of big money and religious populism the has been the Republican party. With that force now in check, the logic of the big tent Democratic party becomes, you know, less logical.

Even in the event that the Republican party simply destroys itself and nothing takes its place, the Democrats will essentially become their own opposition. In-fighting will become epidemic and they will, by default, split into their various factions. Imo.

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Cenedril_Gildinaur
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Fri 08 May , 2009 3:45 pm
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tinwë wrote:
Even in the event that the Republican party simply destroys itself and nothing takes its place, the Democrats will essentially become their own opposition. In-fighting will become epidemic and they will, by default, split into their various factions. Imo.
When the Federalist Party disappeared the Democratic-Republican Party did split into the Democratic Party and the Whig Party, the Whigs being the heirs of the Federalists.

When the Whig Party disappeared the Republican Party changed form a third party to a major party, the Republicans being the heirs of the Whigs.

Both precedents apply in the extremely unlikely event that the Democratic Party allows the Republican Party to die out.

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Fri 08 May , 2009 3:58 pm
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from Tinwe
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I would think the biggest thing keeping the Republican party from breaking up is the fact that by themselves neither faction, social or fiscal conservatives, has any hope of winning any elections.
Very true. It is only the allure and prospect of winning that allows the various groups to come together and put aside some differences in exchange for the rewards of power.

The question then becomes this: at what point is there made an internal decision by many in the Republican Party that they can no longer win on a national scale? They have already lost in the last two election cycles and the current prospects for next year are not exactly great. If they fail to follow the historical precedent of making gains as the party out of power that will be trumpeted to the heavens by pundits in a very loud noise. If they get their death wise in 2012 and Palin waves their banner of glory, then its four losses in a row. The soul searching that they conveniently (or cowardly) postponed this time will have to be dealt with at that time. When they cease to become competitive on a national level, the defection of Specter will be very small potatos to them.

Imagine the public relations nightmare the Party would have if they lose more moderates such as Snowe and Collins of Maine and Arnold in California. What happens if Rush Limbaugh gets his wish and General Powell formall changes parties? It risks becoming a deluge.

We are a long way from the rerunning of the Whig Party demise. But then again, we are closer to it than we were four years ago. Time will tell.

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Cenedril_Gildinaur
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Fri 08 May , 2009 4:03 pm
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sauronsfinger wrote:
The question then becomes this: at what point is there made an internal decision by many in the Republican Party that they can no longer win on a national scale? They have already lost in the last two election cycles and the current prospects for next year are not exactly great.
People said the same of the Democrats not long ago. The Democratic Party didn't die then. The Republican Party won't die now.

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Fri 08 May , 2009 5:11 pm
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The future is not the past nor the present ... that is why it is unknown to all of us. Time will tell.

The fact is that the Democrats did indeed make significant increases in the 2006 midterm elections after losing the 2004 Presidential election. In 2000, they lost the Presidency on a technicality after winning the popular vote. When persons such as Carl Rove were making predictions about a permanent Republican majority , they were doing it at their peril of ignoring the reality that the American electorate had voted for the Democratic candidate for President in three straight elections - 1992, 1996 and 2000. Rove was only able to push both his agenda and his flawed political theory through a technical fluke. The recent history is not at all similar.

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TheEllipticalDisillusion
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 1:46 pm
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If ever there was a time for the libertarians (or another viable third party) to step up, now would be the time. With the GOP as the baby water buffalo on the serengetti, and the Democrats as the lion ready to strike, the libertarians could creep in as the crocodile, and steal the lion's kill. It's the battle at Kruger in political life! I'd consider it.

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Dave_LF
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 2:02 pm
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Probably the most likely outcome is that both parties will reorganize significantly and hold on to the old names even though they may come to represent rather different goals and ideals. Also in the top ten is the possibility that the whole system falls apart.


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TheEllipticalDisillusion
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 2:17 pm
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If the system collapses, then I will be truly shocked. Shocked and awed. Sometimes just running a defrag, or registry cleaner doesn't fix anything. Sometimes you have to format c:/.

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 2:30 pm
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Lets look at TEDs suggestion about the Libertarian Party. If we go with the idea that the Republicans suffer losses again next year in the mid term elections and then lose the presidential election in 2012, it could provide the impetus for such a move. What would have to happen is for defections from the current Republican ranks from members of the Republican Liberty Caucus.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Liberty_Caucus" target="_blank
They could provide the Libertarian Party with formal leadership and experience and some increased level of wider respect and recongnition. The problem then becomes that the new Libertarian Party is most likely even smaller than the current Republican Party. How do they expand that narrow idealogical base to a majority?

Other questions come up also in a scenario such as that? What happens to the current leadership and infrasturcture of the Libs under such a take-over? Do they welcome the converts or bristle at handing over control? It reminds me a bit of the idea of legalizing marijuana. If people think for one minute that the same gangbangers who now sell the stuff will handle the new legalized business, they are in for a rude awakening. Its going to be corporate from minute one and lots of guys in suits with proper English setting up distribution accounts at pharmacies.

I think that, in the final analysis, libertarianism does not lend itself well to the give and take compromise nature that is successful electoral politics. So far, the libertarian idealogy is mostly embraced by nearly all Whites and we know what is happeneing to that electoral demographic. Just this morning there was a story on NPR about how the Census Bureau is now saying that for the first time in our history, racial minorities are a full one-third of the population. Can any political party win a majority without appealing to either African-Americans or Hispanics?

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Meril36
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 2:56 pm
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TheEllipticalDisillusion wrote:
If ever there was a time for the libertarians (or another viable third party) to step up, now would be the time.
Too late for the Libertarians. Corruption has already entered the high levels there; without ever having gotten into power, which is really pathetic and sad.

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Dave_LF
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 3:05 pm
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I suspect that as/if minorities cease to be minorities, they will also cease to vote as anything resembling a block. At least we would hope this to be the case. A race can really only operate as an effective political entity in a narrow band where it has enough people to influence elections, but not so many that they lose their sense of racial identity.


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TheEllipticalDisillusion
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 3:06 pm
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Will there be a white block in the future?

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 4:16 pm
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I would suspect the liberal/conservative divide among whites is just too strong for that to happen in the present situation.

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LalaithUrwen
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 4:26 pm
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Meril36 wrote:
TheEllipticalDisillusion wrote:
If ever there was a time for the libertarians (or another viable third party) to step up, now would be the time.
Too late for the Libertarians. Corruption has already entered the high levels there; without ever having gotten into power, which is really pathetic and sad.
How so? Or, rather, who is it that is now corrupt?

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Meril36
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 5:21 pm
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LalaithUrwen wrote:
Meril36 wrote:
TheEllipticalDisillusion wrote:
If ever there was a time for the libertarians (or another viable third party) to step up, now would be the time.
Too late for the Libertarians. Corruption has already entered the high levels there; without ever having gotten into power, which is really pathetic and sad.
How so? Or, rather, who is it that is now corrupt?
Paraphrasing David Nolan: "More and more the concern in the party seems to be 'let's not say anything scary' and all calls for reducing or eliminating any gov't agency or program have been thrown out. The principles are still stated, but there are no specifics as to what these would actually mean when applied."

In other words, they're only concerned now with getting elected, not with actually sticking to the stated principles. Not to mention that Wayne Allen Root, the VP candidate who ran with Barr, is a warmonger.

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LalaithUrwen
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 5:48 pm
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Interesting. Thanks for the info!

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 7:28 pm
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Thanks to Meril for the frank revelations about the internal state of the Libertarian Party. It confirms what I said earlier
Quote:
I think that, in the final analysis, libertarianism does not lend itself well to the give and take compromise nature that is successful electoral politics.
When I read the Libertarian platform, I noticed that much of it is rather short and vague without any specific meat on the bone. This suspicion fits right in to Merils statement that
Quote:
Paraphrasing David Nolan: "More and more the concern in the party seems to be 'let's not say anything scary' and all calls for reducing or eliminating any gov't agency or program have been thrown out. The principles are still stated, but there are no specifics as to what these would actually mean when applied."
No party - of any idealogy - can get far waging a stealth campaign to keep their true agenda and beliefs secret.

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Cenedril_Gildinaur
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 7:31 pm
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Quote:
No party - of any idealogy - can get far waging a stealth campaign to keep their true agenda and beliefs secret.
And yet the LP at the national level is failing without even doing that.

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Future of Republicanism
Posted: Thu 14 May , 2009 7:34 pm
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Meril is saying that they are
Quote:
Paraphrasing David Nolan: "More and more the concern in the party seems to be 'let's not say anything scary' and all calls for reducing or eliminating any gov't agency or program have been thrown out. The principles are still stated, but there are no specifics as to what these would actually mean when applied."
Obviously I am not a Libertarian and do not go to the meetings , but how else could her words - and those of David Nolan - be interpreted?

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