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Ara-anna
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sat 09 Jan , 2010 6:20 pm
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In elf years we're all still children.... :blackeye:

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*E*V*E*N*S*T*A*R*
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sat 09 Jan , 2010 7:05 pm
I've cried a thousand oceans, and I would cry a thousand more if that's what it takes to sail you home.
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vison wrote:
Um. I wonder how many of us are under 25?
According to an old poll, most of us were.

Now, it's probably more like under 30.

But if you take into consideration those who still regularly post, then yeah, I would assume the average age is at the higher end of the scale now.


EDIT: it's in this thread




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vison
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sat 09 Jan , 2010 7:52 pm
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*E* do we have Netflix in Canuckistan?

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Lidless
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sat 09 Jan , 2010 8:44 pm
Als u het leven te ernstig neemt, mist u de betekenis.
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Let's see how I do on predictions:

After 21 days, Avatar has taken 380 domestically, and 782 overseas.

A 'first movie' typically takes anywhere between 60-80% of the total revenue in the first 21 days - the average is about 73%. (A sequel normally takes 85% in 21 days).

Ground-breaking special effect movies tend to have a longer stretch, with only 50-65% taken in 21 days. (Titanic was 28%!).

Since the story was meh, I'm shooting for 60%.

So my guess is (380+782)/0.6 = USD 1,936m worldwide, beating Titanic (USD 633m domestic).

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sat 09 Jan , 2010 9:03 pm
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Lidless could be correct since this film seems to have defied all predictions made for it. I do think it opened a great deal better than TITANIC did so that might mean less on the last half... we shall see. I asked this on Fire but got no takers so will ask here...

how much of the revenue for AVATAR is made up of the fee for the glasses? I paid $2 extra when I saw it. If 100 million people have bought tickets so far that would mean that as much as $200 million were for the glasses while "only" $800 million was actually for the normal ticket price. By the way, those glasses cost 65 cents each.

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Ara-anna
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sat 09 Jan , 2010 9:42 pm
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Are they counting the glasses fee as part of revenue?

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yovargas
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sat 09 Jan , 2010 10:03 pm
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Lidless wrote:
A 'first movie' typically takes anywhere between 60-80% of the total revenue in the first 21 days - the average is about 73%. (A sequel normally takes 85% in 21 days).
They say hit movies released during the holiday season perform differently than the front-heavy summer hits.


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*E*V*E*N*S*T*A*R*
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sun 10 Jan , 2010 12:10 am
I've cried a thousand oceans, and I would cry a thousand more if that's what it takes to sail you home.
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vison wrote:
*E* do we have Netflix in Canuckistan?
Nupe, those commie bastards still don't ship internationally.

Canada does have an equivalent in Zip.ca, however. I've been using that for maybe six years and only ever have trouble with the shipping time because I'm not near any warehouses (Ottawa and Toronto are the closest). They do have warehouses in Calgary and Vancouver, so you'd probably be able to avoid that bull. :P There are also some similar Canadian companies that a google search will turn up for you. I only haven't dealt with them because their warehouses are out your way, so I figured the shipping would be about the same, and since Zip has the biggest catalog to choose from, well... ya know.




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Jude
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sun 10 Jan , 2010 1:33 am
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I just came back from seeing it. It was visually beautiful. I thought the dialogue was the weakest part, just like it was the weakest part of Titanic.

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Lidless
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sun 10 Jan , 2010 11:08 am
Als u het leven te ernstig neemt, mist u de betekenis.
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The fee for the glasses will be counted as revenue.

Due to inflation and higher prices anyway for 3D movies, it'll be less bums on seats than Titanic.
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So my guess is (380+782)/0.6 = USD 1,936m worldwide, beating Titanic (USD 633m domestic).
...and if the first 21 days represents 65% of the overall take, that's USD 1,787m worldwide. Either way, I'm predicting Titanic numbers.

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Ara-anna
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sun 10 Jan , 2010 4:08 pm
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Well if we were going for actual bums in seats, Gone With the Wind wins hands down. i.e. adjusted for inflation. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

RoTK comes in number 50 when everything is adjusted for inflation. Avatar comes in at number 78.


Gone with the Wind didn't even need fancy glasses either.

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vison
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sun 10 Jan , 2010 5:19 pm
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Gone With the Wind has been out since 1939. FOTR since 2001, TTT in 2002 and ROTK in 2003. Avatar for less than 2 months, and it's already #78 out of the thousands of movies produced?

I think it's a staggering achievement. Not that I think it's the greatest movie of all time, but that it's such a pop phenom.

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Sun 10 Jan , 2010 5:40 pm
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When you calculate such matters, the further you go back the more sketchy things get. for example, the most seen film up to GONE WITH THE WIND was BIRTH OF A NATION. It commanded a first run ticket price of $2 in the major cities and that would be worth over $40 per ticket today. It was the true first feature film blockbuster. It took in $10 million dollars from the theater circuit and made rich men of D.W. Griffith and the writer of The Clansman - the book on which it is based. That figure would equal over $200 million today. When you consider the much smaller population and the lack of a strong middle class in 1915, the results are truly staggering. After the film made its rounds of the theater circuit, it was shown repeatedly in libraries, town halls and anywhere you could put up a sheet and draw a crowd. No attendance figures were kept for such showings since the exhibitors either paid a weekly or monthly fee or just bought a copy of the film outright. Those folks who paid in such venues sometimes paid only ten cents.

Nobody can say how many people saw BIRTH OF A NATION but it is said to be the most viewed film in history. Because of its message and storyline, it is reviled by many today. Griffith made many far superior films that were even more important in the development of film - INTOLERANCE is one - but NATION hangs on the film most identified with his career.

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There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs. - John Rogers


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Crucifer
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Wed 13 Jan , 2010 12:55 pm
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Not to mention the fact that after 30 days of almost no ticket sales, MGM were planning on pulling 2001 from cinemas, before it eventually exploded...

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sauronsfinger
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Wed 20 Jan , 2010 1:12 pm
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It looks like the predictions of our own Lidless are coming to pass. AVATAR has only been out five weeks but is now within striking distance of TITANIC. Boxofficemojo.com reports that TITANIC took in $1.842 billion dollars in its run. AVATAR is now at $1.637 billion. Cameron is indeed King of the World... at least the movie world.

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There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs. - John Rogers


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MariaHobbit
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Wed 20 Jan , 2010 3:20 pm
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I still haven't been to see this thing. I just can't get interested in the story as described, and since my oldest daughter told me the 3D effects made her sick, and she spent 80% of the movie watching it without glasses--- I don't know if it's worth it.

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vison
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Wed 20 Jan , 2010 5:58 pm
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MariaHobbit wrote:
I still haven't been to see this thing. I just can't get interested in the story as described, and since my oldest daughter told me the 3D effects made her sick, and she spent 80% of the movie watching it without glasses--- I don't know if it's worth it.
Nope. You'll like it. I guarantee it. :D

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Riverthalos
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Thu 21 Jan , 2010 10:11 pm
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You don't need to see it in a 3D capable theater, you know.

I did go see Avatar in a 3D theater and I wore the silly glasses. All they did was make the image sharp. They did not force me to see in stereo though. Nothing on this planet can force me to see in stereo. As a result, nothing came poping out of the screen and there was no chance for motion sickness. However, I still had fun. So I recommend that those who are prone to getting motion sick just go see it in 2D. It'll be fine.

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*E*V*E*N*S*T*A*R*
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Fri 22 Jan , 2010 3:26 am
I've cried a thousand oceans, and I would cry a thousand more if that's what it takes to sail you home.
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Yeah, I wasn't interested in 3D on the best of days, let alone one where I thought I suffered eye damage. :P Not being a fan of heights, I'm cool with taking in the story and ~normal~ effects first, and will handle that third dimension some other time.

So hey, finally saw the damn thing. Thanks to new meds and spending most of my energy getting pissed off at a pay phone, I'll write about it tomorrah or something. Will say this much: oh. Guess they can't all be LOTR.




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Lidless
Post subject: Re: Avatar
Posted: Mon 25 Jan , 2010 7:38 am
Als u het leven te ernstig neemt, mist u de betekenis.
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Looks like I totally overcooked the attrition rate. It's still top of the box office with little decline, and will pass Titanic today.

At this point, all bets are off.

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