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PostPosted: Tue 09 Aug , 2005 1:38 am 
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Wrap your brain around numbers.

Whatever it is you did in the preceding post, I couldn't do it, not without someone holding my hand.

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PostPosted: Tue 09 Aug , 2005 1:42 am 
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The calculator does all the work. :D

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PostPosted: Tue 09 Aug , 2005 5:53 am 
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I'll do this tomorrow Jn. I'm too sleepy right now and I'm afraid I'll mess it up!

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PostPosted: Tue 09 Aug , 2005 4:45 pm 
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What is the 5% that's subtracted out?

Also, what do you mean by 'Moving average'?

Is the percentage the percentage of members voting or members that voted out of the active members?

Are we going to need to calculate a quorum for the upcoming binding vote?

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PostPosted: Tue 09 Aug , 2005 5:00 pm 
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Also, what do you mean by 'Moving average'?

I took all seven percentages and averaged them. It's a moving average because after the next binding vote, the current numbers under (1) will be erased and the numbers from the next vote will become the numbers under (7). The numbers 'move' every time there's a vote, with the oldest dropping out and the newest coming in on top.

What is the 5% that's subtracted out?

An average means that some numbers were higher and others were lower. In any seven votes, in some cases there might be 53 voters and in other cases there might only be 43. Both of these are 'normal' turnout. So we build an interval around the average that takes into account this range.

We could say, for example, that our prediction for the turnout in the next vote is 22% plus/minus 5%. But for purposes of defining a quorum, which is a minimum, we're not concerned about the turnout being larger than average, we're only concerned about it being smaller than average. So we only bother to subtract 5% from the average, as the amount that represents the bottom of the normal range.

(Idylle did a guesstimate that 5% would be right, and I followed it up with a statistical analysis that indicated somewhere before 4% and 5% would be right, so we're using 5%.)

Is the percentage the percentage of members voting or members that voted out of the active members?

It's the percentage out of the active members.

Are we going to need to calculate a quorum for the upcoming binding vote?

Yes. When Ax opens the next binding vote, the Rangers will have to calculate for him the number of active members over the last 60 days. Then Ax will take the percentage posted above, multiply it by the number he gets from the Rangers, and that will be the number of voters needed for a quorum.

Ax for sure knows how to do the calculation. He won't have any problem with it.

But once the vote is finished, you'll have to adjust all the numbers in the Mayor's post to incorporate the information from this vote. I'll explain to you how to do that when the time comes.

Jn

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PostPosted: Tue 09 Aug , 2005 6:12 pm 

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Quote:
But once the vote is finished, you'll have to adjust all the numbers in the Mayor's post to incorporate the information from this vote. I'll explain to you how to do that when the time comes.


But will Eru still be the acting Mayor then? My assumption was that you would be back in that role in time to oversee the first official Mayoral election. If Eru plans to accept a nomination, then she certainly should not be overseeing the election. And the process begins on August 19, three days before that vote is scheduled to be finished. It is certainly my expectation that you will be back in the saddle by then.


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PostPosted: Tue 09 Aug , 2005 6:47 pm 
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Thanks for explaining all that Jn. Don't worry though, I do know what an average is. :P

Good point Voronwe. I had been wondering when that process was going to start up. I hadn't realized it was so soon.

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PostPosted: Tue 09 Aug , 2005 7:59 pm 
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And the process begins on August 19, three days before that vote is scheduled to be finished.

Ooops. Time got away from me. I thought the vote would be over before the election stuff started.

Yeah, I guess when the election starts I should take back the Mayor i.d. So that means I have to keep doing it all the way to September 12?

(I'll probably transfer the i.d. right after the election so that the person who wins will have a practice period, if they need one.)

Jn

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PostPosted: Wed 10 Aug , 2005 10:54 pm 
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Eru,

Could you fill in the second post of the Quorum Thread with the following numbers (right below the blue text):

The quorum that you calculated for this vote ..... 39 voters
The number of active members used for this calculation ..... 219

Returning to Voronwe's topic, do I have to be Mayor during the nomination process or could someone else be practicing Mayor while that's going on?

I agree that I have to do it from Aug 29 one, definitely, because no nominee can form the election commitee, but does it have to be before then?

I'm thinking maybe we should work a little harder to get people to play Mayor for a week and actually run for office. Not that I mind Eru continuing if no one else wants to, and if she wants to. (You're doing fine, Eru!) I'm just sort of loathe to come back to this myself.

Jn

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PostPosted: Wed 10 Aug , 2005 11:00 pm 
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Jn, could I cover for you during the election?

I'm not interested in running for Mayor this year, so I don't want to do it before then (I'm away until the 21st or 22nd anyway), but that also means there's no conflict.

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PostPosted: Wed 10 Aug , 2005 11:03 pm 
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I filled in the numbers Jn. Let me know if I did it correctly.

Once this vote is over, where will those numbers be moved? I'm still not sure how you've intended that post to work. Though I guess you don't have to bother eplaining it until the real Mayor starts up.

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PostPosted: Wed 10 Aug , 2005 11:17 pm 
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Prim - maybe we can do it that way if no one else objects. I just sort of get chills thinking about having to keep the member list again from Aug 19 to Sept 22. I'd really like to extract myself from all of this because it's having a negative impact on my RL.

Eru - The numbers are perfect.

Don't worry yet about carrying this vote forward. At some point when this vote is finished, I'll take back the Mayor i.d., fill in the results of this vote, and do the next post in that thread. Once there are two posts, and everyone can see how the method was done and updated, I don't think anyone will need explanations for doing it in the future.

Jn

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PostPosted: Wed 10 Aug , 2005 11:22 pm 
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Well, I certainly don't want to do it if people might object, but my only intention is to keep you from having to go back to it again.

If anyone's suspicious of my motives, I could point out that this makes it impossible for me to to decide after all to run for Mayor. :D

However, if someone who definitely wants to run next year steps forward, he or she would be a better choice than me.

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PostPosted: Wed 10 Aug , 2005 11:30 pm 
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Primula_Baggins wrote:
Well, I certainly don't want to do it if people might object, but my only intention is to keep you from having to go back to it again.

If anyone's suspicious of my motives, I could point out that this makes it impossible for me to to decide after all to run for Mayor. :D


My only objection is the very fact that I can't nominate you for Mayor. :(

It's okay. I'm resigned to the disappointment, though I was SO looking forward to the dirty tricks campaign.

:Q Did I say that out loud?

:oops:

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PostPosted: Wed 10 Aug , 2005 11:32 pm 
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<dispatches black heli—

Whups.

I do miss that admin panel sometimes. :devil:

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PostPosted: Thu 11 Aug , 2005 2:56 am 
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I can't think of anyone who would object, Prim ... I just don't want it to look like I'm palming off the i.d. on anyone who will take it. I think Voronwe had something a bit more decorous in mind. :P

But, no reason why we can't have a bit of fun for awhile before the job begins in earnest.

Jn

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PostPosted: Thu 11 Aug , 2005 3:02 am 
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Well, assuming there is no objection, I can do it any time after August 21st. Waiting until the election period would be fine, if Eru or someone else interested in the position wants to use the time until then.

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PostPosted: Thu 11 Aug , 2005 4:31 am 
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Jnyusa wrote:
Eru,

Could you fill in the second post of the Quorum Thread with the following numbers (right below the blue text):

The quorum that you calculated for this vote ..... 39 voters
The number of active members used for this calculation ..... 219

Jn


I just saw this. I’m not sure where these numbers came from - did you subtract 14 (RP) from the number TED posted in forum management (233)? If so, the number is wrong. (Sorry).

I posted a response to TED in Forum management. Here’s what I came up with -

Total number of registered screen names = 267
minus - screen names not active in last 60 days = 32
= total active screen names in last 60 days = 235

total number of RP characters = 16
minus those not active in last 60 days = 13
= total active RP’s in last 60 days = 3

235 - 3 - 2 (mayor & administrator) = 230

The RP number is in fact 16. There has been one new RP character since the last vote - Figwit. The discrepancy came from a name in the RP registry that never registered - Bitsy Tattler. There is another one however that is not in the list - The Seekers. I’m not sure if it is an ID used by a group of RPers or what. Alandriel may know something about it. Anyway, sorry to throw a wrench into the works, but I thought I should point that out.

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PostPosted: Thu 11 Aug , 2005 4:51 am 
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The Seekers is an RP screen name.

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PostPosted: Thu 11 Aug , 2005 4:56 am 
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Thank you, tinwe!

We have been subtracting all RP names without bothering to note whether they've been active - only because I thought that information would be tedious to obtain. But your figures are more accurate and of course it's better to have more accurate figures.

Eru, maybe you can just paste tinwe's calculation into the post ... like as an addendum to the numbers just about the blue text. And change the number of active members on the line where that now appears.

I'll post for Ax in the binding vote thread to change the quorum number.

Jn

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