On the previous page of this thread, Cendril gives us lots of video from Peter Schiff. This is suposedly part of his "evidence" that Austrian economists got it right about the current economic woes and made "accurate predictions".
First, be aware that Peter Schiff is NOT an economist. But like many in the libertarian fold, he claims to know more than they do even though he lacks the formal education and the degree in the field. His degree is in finance which I guess is closer to economics than being a baby doctor is.
Second, if the man is not a fraud he is treading dangerouosly down that same path.
Here is an excellent and very detailed article detailing the "accurate predictions" of Peter Shiff:
http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090213" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank
here is part of it showing you just how accurate Schiff has been in his predictions:
Thanks to the wonders of video technology, we have an accurate record of Schiff's views from this 2002 television interview. What is notable here is that in this 2002 interview, Schiff was saying nearly the same exact things that he did during 2008 and in his recent interview with me.
At the time of this 2002 interview, the U.S. stock market had already suffered steep losses and the economy was in recession at the time of this 2002 interview. The highlights of Schiff's predictions: he saw substantial downside over the next couple of years for the stock market. He predicted that the Dow, which was around 10,000 at the time, would plummet to between 2,000 and 4,000 and he even went so far as to say that the Dow might fall below 2,000. He expected the NASDAQ to drop to 500 from its then level of 1,700. He also said that the dollar was going to fall sharply and interest rates were going to go through the roof accompanied by dramatic inflation.
On all of these counts, Schiff wasn't just wrong but ended up being hugely wrong.
Now, fast forward to May 30, 2008 and the U.S. News article, "Permabear Peter Schiff's Worst-Case Scenario." Let's review some of the key predictions he made in that piece As for his investing predictions he said, "I'm getting my clients' money outside of the United States as fast as they can send it to me...You've got to own resources and energy...I've been buying gold, silver, industrial metals, and all kinds of stocks. My main theme is the global economy will survive and the U.S. economy is a disaster. Everything is about how you benefit from the increased purchasing power and rising standard of living in the rest of the world."
This was wrong as commodity prices have plunged since this interview (see graph below). Foreign stocks actually declined more in 2008 than did U.S. stocks so Schiff was wrong on that count too.
If you read the article you will see that Schiff has pretty much a one song act that he has been doing for several years now. He loves to predict the sky is falling and when you do that year after year after year, eventually its going to rain from the heavens.
The article exposing Schiff was written by Eric Tyson
Eric Tyson is a best-selling personal finance book author and has penned five national best sellers. He is also the only author to have four of his books simultaneously on Business Week's business book bestseller list. His Personal Finance for Dummies, a Wall Street Journal best-seller, won the Benjamin Franklin Award for Best Business Book of the Year. His latest book, Let's Get Real About Money, is an action oriented guide to developing and practicing the best financial habits and strategies. Eric's syndicated newspaper column is read by millions of readers weekly. He is a former columnist and award-winning journalist for the Sunday San Francisco Chronicle.
Eric's work has been featured and quoted in hundreds of local and national publications and media outlets including Newsweek, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, Money, Worth, Parenting, USA Today and on the NBC Today Show, ABC, Fox News, CNBC, PBS Nightly Business Report, CNN, and on CBS national radio, NPR's Marketplace Money and Bloomberg Business Radio. He's also been a featured speaker at a White House conference on retirement planning.
The last paragraph of the article may be one of the most revealing when you judge just how "accurate" Mr. Schiff is in the field of economics:
Update on 2/23/09: I just got off the phone from doing a radio interview with Jason Hartman for his real estate and financial show. Early on, he asked me about various gurus and Peter Schiff's name quickly came up. Schiff he said had been a guest on his program in the past. Without missing a beat, Mr. Hartman proceeded to tell me how he invested $200,000 through Schiff's firm and now had just half of that left!
And this is the man CG points to to support his claims. In fact, on February 9 of this very year, Peter Schiff was quoted in the Wall Street Journal admitting his shortcomings:
My central investing premise, a weakening dollar and safety in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, didn't materialize in 2008.
translation: my predictions were wrong.