The Republicans will branch off into the Wal-Mart wing and the Moderate wing before the Republican party will go away completely. I can see the moderates forming their own party with values closer to that of conservatism, while what's left of the Republicans will try to excite their base with Sarah Palin, Rush, Joe the Plumber. They stand for "conservatism" only in name.
I think it is interesting that gay marriage (garriage) can become a divisive issue in the future. By all accounts of states rights, certain states have exercised their right to decide on the garriage issue either banning or allowing. I read a terrible interview with Joe the Plumber on CNN.com. He said that he believes garriage should be decided by states, but thinks it shouldn't be allowed because of god something... I believe he said that all societies of all times held marriage as sacred between a man and a woman (guess he doesn't read history). The interesting part is that he makes a claim of states rights, but his own wing of the Republicans supported Georgie's constitutional amendment to make marriage a man/woman only thing. Lastly, Joe the Plumber.... your fifteen minutes are up. You are not a plumber, you are a liar, go away.