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Election Decision

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Harvestdancer
Post subject: Election Decision
Posted: Tue 22 Sep , 2020 11:46 pm
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Joined: Thu 26 Mar , 2020 1:25 am
 
I have heard a prediction recently that I think has a possibility of happening. On election night, Trump wins. One week later, after all the mail-in votes are counted, Biden wins. It's called "Red Mirage". Along with the Red Mirage, there is another thing to consider.

People are talking about "Interim President Pelosi" if it isn't settled by inauguration day. No. She's third in line if there are vacancies from death, disability, or removal from office. There is, in Article 2, Amendment 12, and Amendment 20, a procedure for what to do if the EC isn't settled. The House convenes. The choose. Some are probably thinking "yay, the House is majority Democrat" except that's not how it works. Each state submits one vote.

As it stands now, 27 state delegations are Republican and 21 are Democratic. Two of them are 50% Democratic. If the vote were taken right now it would be a 27-21 Republican victory, but that is not all there is.

If there are contested House races, it falls within the power of the House to vote on which person to seat. The obvious contender are the states where the delegation is already 50%, MI and PA. Then CO and FL both have an odd number of Representatives AND are 50%+1 Republican, meaning that one seat switched would lead to them being 50%+1 Democrat.

That does only bring the count to 25 to 25, evenly tied. It requires four contested races being decided in the House, so it isn't enough to get 26. So that leaves some states with a bigger margin to overcome.

There are 5 states that have only one Representative: AK, MT, ND, SD, WY. Unfortunately they are all very solidly red states, a contested race there would be quite obviously a setup. Then there are states where you need two seats to switch: ID, KS, MS, NE, SC, UT, WV, and WI. Again they are all Red states, having two seats up for grabs that way in any one of them also is a little hard to envision.

Still, that leaves 13 options, so maybe one of them could be worked to give the Democrats a 26-24 advantage in the House.

Now what to do if there is a 25-25 tie. We would start with the 12th Amendment, only to find it has been updated with the 20th Amendment. Not only does the 20th Amendment move inauguration day from March to January, it tells us what happens if the House cannot come to a conclusion.

The House selects the President Elect, the Senate selects the Vice President Elect. Barring any major change to the Senate, which is less volatile than the House, that means they will probably choose Vice President Pence as Vice President Elect. That's important to know if the House cannot reach a conclusion by inauguration day.

If the House cannot decide by inauguration day, the Vice President Elect becomes the acting President until either the House or the Electoral College can reach an actual conclusion. That places Pence in charge until the mess is resolved.


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